[Iran’s Massive Provocations and the Calculated Restraint of the U.S.]

The United States is remaining silent in the face of Iranian provocations rather than launching a powerful counter-response. However, this does not mean the will to fight has been broken. It can be viewed as a diplomatic judgment that the U.S.-China summit, which has already been postponed once, cannot be delayed again, and this priority precedes military punishment. The U.S. plan is simple: meet Xi Jinping in Beijing first, and then deal with Iran in earnest. Therefore, it can be said that the U.S. patience toward Iran—which is currently provoking and testing America's nerves—will last until May 14th, when the U.S.-China summit concludes.

On the 6th, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported, “Although the United Arab Emirates (UAE) came under military attack from Iran, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Kane stated in a Pentagon briefing that such Iranian military actions do not reach the level of a resumption of war.” The report continued, “U.S. officials are striving to downplay recent incidents where Iran targeted U.S. vessels and other ships in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding areas. While these actions have tested a volatile four-week ceasefire and sparked threats from both sides, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also said, ‘For now, the ceasefire is certainly holding.’”

So, why is the U.S. not resuming attacks at a level that would “wipe Iran off the map,” as it has frequently declared, despite these provocations? Looking at the current situation, Iran’s actions can clearly be defined as a violation of the ceasefire agreement. In fact, on the 5th (local time), approximately one month after the ceasefire took effect, Iran launched a total of 19 weapons toward the UAE, including 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 drones. While the UAE’s air defense systems intercepted most of them, a tanker belonging to the UAE’s state-owned oil company (ADNOC) was hit, and an explosion occurred in the engine room of the HMM ‘Namu,’ which had 24 people on board, including 6 South Koreans. A large fire broke out at the Fujairah refining complex due to a drone attack, and missile sirens echoed as far as downtown Dubai and Abu Dhabi. This attack was the largest conflict since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire in early April.

However, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman Dan Kane stood side-by-side at the Pentagon that day and stated, “This attack is not a violation of the ceasefire,” and “The ceasefire is still valid.” While they added, “We are ready for combat,” they drew a firm line by saying, “There will be no resumption of attacks.” Some domestic and foreign media interpret this as a loss of American resolve to fight, but this is not an accurate reading. The U.S. currently possesses both the capability and the will to punish Iran. However, the calculation that pulling the trigger for a resumed attack at this moment would once again blow away the Beijing summit scheduled for eight days later is what is causing the temporary halt in military action.

[The Already Postponed U.S.-China Summit Cannot Be Delayed Again]

To understand why the U.S. is prioritizing diplomatic schedules over military action at this point, it is necessary to first look at the history of the postponed U.S.-China summit. Initially, President Trump’s visit to China was scheduled for April 31st to May 2nd, but it was abruptly postponed as the war with Iran began on February 28th and lasted longer than expected. After further adjustments, it was finalized for May 14th–15th. This is a summit that has already been pushed back once—effectively twice—due to the war with Iran.

For this schedule, which was confirmed after two postponements due to the U.S.-Iran war, four U.S. Air Force C-17 transport planes have already landed at Beijing Capital International Airport to unload advance team supplies and security equipment. Postponing the meeting again due to Iranian provocations after physical preparations have been completed would have fatal diplomatic consequences. It would brand the U.S. as a country that cannot keep its diplomatic promises and provide China with the pretext to claim, “The U.S. is bogged down in Middle Eastern issues and lacks the capacity to deal with us.” This is a matter of undermining the diplomatic credibility of the U.S. itself, beyond a simple postponement of a meeting.

Of course, it is clear that the uncertainty of the U.S.-China summit has increased as all issues are buried under the Middle East war and President Trump seems to have little room to maneuver. Nevertheless, it is judged that the U.S. places the highest priority on holding the summit as scheduled because the diplomatic burden of a further postponement would be too great. If it were postponed again at this point, it could mean the cancellation of the summit itself. The U.S. has sufficient reasons to ensure this meeting takes place.

[A U.S.-China Summit Important to Both the U.S. and China]

For President Donald Trump, this summit is a critically important diplomatic exit that could potentially rebound his domestic approval ratings, which have fallen due to the Iran war. Trump and Xi Jinping are expected to focus on U.S.-China relations, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and the Iran issue during this meeting.

However, what is noteworthy at this point is that while the summit is a diplomatic event that the U.S. can no longer postpone, it is also a major diplomatic event for China that must be held urgently, especially for President Xi Jinping’s stable administration.

China also has significant national interests to gain from the summit, so it is extremely wary of Iranian provocations ruining the plan. President Xi Jinping is aiming to resolve tariff issues and ease U.S. regulations on semiconductors and advanced technology during this meeting. If the summit is canceled due to Iran's reckless provocations, China will inevitably suffer significant diplomatic losses.

In fact, there is a perception within China that this summit is an important opportunity to secure long-term stability in U.S.-China relations. Some also believe the Chinese government could use the Taiwan issue as leverage in negotiations, taking advantage of the fact that President Trump needs achievements in trade deals. If Iran continues its provocations and the summit is postponed again or canceled, the negotiation groundwork that China has carefully built will collapse all at once.

From this perspective, it can be seen that China is also extremely wary of Iranian provocations ruining the arrangement. That is why Foreign Minister Wang Yi summoned Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Beijing on the 6th to directly pressure him regarding “freedom of navigation” and “maintaining the ceasefire.” The Iranian Foreign Minister’s visit to Beijing on the 6th was at China's invitation. The timing—eight days before the summit—is no coincidence.

In a phone call with Minister Araghchi on the 15th of last month, Wang Yi had already stated, “As a country along the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s sovereignty, security, and legitimate rights and interests should be respected and protected. At the same time, the freedom and safety of navigation in international straits must also be guaranteed, and efforts to resume normal passage in the strait are the unified voice of the international community.” He added, “China supports maintaining the trend of ceasefire and negotiations.” Calling him to Beijing for a face-to-face meeting just 20 days later is unusual in Chinese diplomatic practice—publicly demanding restraint and the opening of the strait from an ally. This is evidence of the high intensity of China's current pressure.

This is inevitable because, from China's perspective, it needs to restrain Iran from military provocations at least until the 14th, when the U.S.-China summit takes place. Furthermore, if China can play a mediating role between the U.S. and Iran, it would be a golden opportunity to look good to the U.S. Thus, China is attempting to mediate an exit from the Middle East crisis through dialogue, including the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz, by summoning Foreign Minister Araghchi.

In response, Minister Araghchi said, “Iran is willing to continue seeking reasonable and realistic solutions through peaceful negotiations,” and requested that China “play a positive role in promoting peace,” expressing gratitude for China's mediation efforts. This is a signal that Iran is partially accepting China's pressure. China is practicing a "killing two birds with one stone" diplomacy: demanding a halt to provocations and the maintenance of the ceasefire from Iran, while sending a message to the U.S. that says, “We are soothing Iran, so come to the summit.”

The problem remains whether the hardliners of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will accept the promise of restraint made by Foreign Minister Araghchi. However, it is judged that if China, Iran's largest supporter, directly and strongly demands a halt to provocations and safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, it could be the best way to persuade the hardliners within Iran. This is because no matter how hardline they are, they cannot survive by turning their backs on China.

[The U.S. Strategy: ‘Summit First, Retaliation Against Iran Later’]

The current structure can be summarized as follows: The U.S. has the intent to punish Iran for its provocations, but based on the judgment that it cannot once again collapse a diplomatic schedule that has already been postponed twice, it is delaying the resumption of attacks until after the summit. China is trying to maintain the status quo until the summit by directly persuading Iran. Iran is wavering between moderates and hardliners but is holding onto the channel with China.

The U.S. vision is also clear. First, successfully hold the Beijing summit on the 14th–15th, and at that meeting, have China pressure Iran to create a breakthrough in the Iran issue. If China exercises substantial influence over Iran to create conditions for resumed negotiations, Trump can seize a diplomatic achievement and return to the negotiating table with Iran. Conversely, if the Iran issue is not resolved at the summit, the U.S. will have fulfilled its diplomatic obligations, making the re-introduction of military options much more justifiable both domestically and internationally. Either way, the Beijing summit comes first.

This is the practical reason why the U.S. declared “the ceasefire is valid” even in the face of clear provocations such as Iran's attack on the UAE and the strike on vessels. The U.S. does not lack the will to punish Iran; it is choosing the timing.

One final note: In this regard, I hope people refrain from distorted reporting claiming that the limits of U.S. military operations have been exposed or that Trump is falling into a quagmire because the U.S. is delaying the resumption of attacks against Iran. Looking at international affairs in such a simplistic manner is a major mistake.