[The Kremlin becomes extremely sensitive to drone assassination scenarios]

Russian President Vladimir Putin, seized by the fear of drone assassination, has entered a state of extreme seclusion close to a panic attack. Consumed by intense anxiety over potential assassinations and coups, he has completely halted public activities and shut himself away in underground bunkers. As bold Ukrainian drone strikes ravage the Russian mainland and distrust over internal information leaks reaches its peak, the Federal Protective Service (FSO) has tightened security protocols around the president to an unprecedented level.

The British Financial Times (FT) drew significant attention in its May 5th edition, citing multiple internal Kremlin sources and European intelligence officials: “Vladimir Putin, who once reigned with the image of an 'Iron President,' is collapsing in the face of assassination threats.” The report added, “Putin is currently moving between several underground bunkers, including those in the Krasnodar region of southern Russia, cutting off contact with the outside world for weeks at a time.”

The FT continued, “Putin no longer visits his official residence in the Moscow region or his villa in Valdai in the northwest. State media is editing pre-recorded videos to air as if they are real-time broadcasts, creating a fictional daily routine of the president performing normal duties. This shows that the Kremlin, which spent decades painstakingly building the image of a ‘strong leader,’ is now relying on fake videos to protect that image.”

The direct catalyst that drove Putin to this state was Ukraine’s drone attacks. Last year, Ukraine carried out the so-called ‘Spiderweb Operation,’ using 117 drones to destroy 41 Russian strategic bombers. Once drones successfully penetrated beyond the Arctic Circle and into key military bases on the Russian mainland, the Kremlin began to accept the scenario that drones could threaten the president’s personal safety as a reality.

Regarding this, the FT quoted one of Putin's aides: “The shock of the Spiderweb Operation has still not faded. This was compounded by the surprise arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by the U.S. in January this year, which further amplified Putin's fear. It was a demonstration right before his eyes that no matter how much power a leader holds, they are never safe from physical harm.”

[Surveillance cameras in the chef's home... All-out blockade]

The FT stated, “Anxiety bordering on panic led to unprecedented security measures. Key personnel in charge of security, cooking, and filming are prohibited from using public transportation. Anyone meeting the president must go through a double identity verification process, and aides are restricted to using communication devices with no internet connection.”

The report continued with a more shocking revelation: “The state has even invaded their private living spaces; surveillance systems have been installed in the homes of the closest staff, including chefs, photographers, and bodyguards. Even those who serve Putin most closely have become subjects of 24-hour surveillance.” In fact, the Federal Protective Service (FSO) has regularized large-scale searches using canine units, and agents have been permanently stationed along the Moscow River to respond immediately to drone attacks. Analysis suggests that the intermittent internet outages in downtown Moscow are also measures related to drone defense and the protection of the president.

[Infighting among security agencies fuels more fear]

These changes began in earnest following the assassination of a Russian military general late last year. Since then, the blame game between the military and intelligence agencies has intensified, further deepening distrust and tension within the core of power. Regarding this, the FT explained, “At a meeting held in the Kremlin, FSB head Alexander Bortnikov shifted responsibility to the Ministry of Defense, which lacks a dedicated security organization, while Viktor Zolotov, Commander-in-Chief of the National Guard and a former bodyguard of Putin, denied responsibility, citing a lack of resources. The scene of the agencies responsible for security passing the buck to each other clearly revealed the cracks within the Kremlin.”

The FT noted, “Ultimately, Putin stepped in and settled the situation by having the FSO take over the protection of 10 high-ranking generals, including three deputy chiefs of staff directly under the Chief of the General Staff, but the embers of internal distrust remain unextinguished.”

[Putin obsessed only with war, civil administration completely vanished]

However, all Putin does inside the bunker is focus on the war. He is known to be deeply involved in operational details, holding daily meetings with military officials to the point of personally checking the names of small villages in Ukraine. Officials dealing with general administrative affairs and public livelihood issues can only meet the president once every few weeks or months. Citing a Putin aide, the FT reported, “Putin spends 70% of his time on the war and allocates the remaining 30% to diplomacy or the economy. If you want more frequent access to him, you have no choice but to produce results in the war.”

Moscow-based political analyst Andrei Kolesnikov criticized, “Putin has become like the newly appeared Banksy statue in London—a figure covering his face with a flag, refusing to see or hear. He only listens to the voices of the security agencies and expects the people to accept this situation as the new normal.”

[Public anger toward Putin reaches a critical point, approval ratings at rock bottom]

As the president’s seclusion lengthens, public sentiment is rapidly turning away. According to state-run and independent polling agencies, Putin’s approval rating has dropped to its lowest level since the declaration of partial mobilization in the fall of 2022. On social media, criticism videos from ordinary citizens and influencers are pouring out, expressing anger over internet blocks, tax hikes for small businesses, and policies such as the culling of livestock in Siberia.

Monaco-based influencer Viktoria Bonya directly called out Putin in an 18-minute video, saying, “People are afraid of you.” This video recorded over 1.5 million 'likes,' throwing the Kremlin into an uproar. The fact that the Kremlin had to publicly admit it was aware of the video proves the severity of the internal agitation. Following this, Putin personally mentioned the internet blockage issue for the first time, instructing relevant departments, “Do not focus only on prohibitions, but explain it properly to the people.”

So far this year, Putin's public activities have occurred only twice, including a visit to a sports school in St. Petersburg on April 27. This is a stark contrast to the same period last year, when he handled more than 17 external schedules.

Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, asserted, “The gap between what Putin has to handle and what he actually wants to deal with is widening, and it will not be easily narrowed.” The Kremlin’s crisis is entering a new phase as panic-driven seclusion, cracks in public sentiment, and distrust between internal security agencies become complexly intertwined.

[ISW, “Ukraine reclaimed more territory than Russia in April”]

Amidst this, it has been shockingly revealed that the Russian military lost more territory than it newly secured during engagements with Ukraine last April. This implies that although Putin is focusing entirely on the war, reality is unfolding quite differently from his plans.

AFP News, citing a battlefield report from the U.S. think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reported, “The Ukrainian military conducted offensives on major fronts such as eastern Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Donetsk last month, achieving the feat of reclaiming about 40 square kilometers of territory. In contrast, the Russian army only managed to occupy a few square kilometers on the eastern side of Kramatorsk in Donetsk, recording a negative change in monthly territorial occupation.”

AFP continued, “This is the first time in about three years, since the summer of 2023 when the Ukrainian military launched a large-scale offensive, that the land lost by Russia was larger than the land seized on a monthly basis. This is interpreted as an indicator that the momentum of Russia's advance, which had been gradually expanding territory through a war of attrition, has been broken.”

The background of this shift in the war situation was a combination of strategic airstrikes by the Ukrainian military and internal flaws within the Russian military. The ISW assessed, “Along with the Ukrainian military’s strengthened medium-range strike capability, the measures to block the use of Starlink terminals and restrict Telegram access on the Russian side actually caused confusion in the Russian military's internal communication network, degrading their operational performance.”

AFP analyzed, “Weather conditions also acted as a variable. As the frozen ground of winter turned into a muddy mess known as 'Rasputitsa' during the spring thaw, the mobility of the Russian army sharply declined.” The Ukrainian military took advantage of this gap by increasing the intensity of precision strikes using unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) to pressure the Russian army.

[The worsening downfall of Putin, “A falling bird has no wings!”]

Vladimir Putin’s act of locking himself in the prison without bars that is an underground bunker is an inevitable sign of the downfall a dictator faces at the peak of power. The gallant momentum of advocating for a 'Strong Russia' and reshaping the world order is nowhere to be found, replaced only by a paranoid attitude that distrusts even his own chef and photographer, leading to the prohibition of mobile phone use. This vividly shows how fragile power maintained by fear truly is.

Putin's isolation is a strategic victory created by the united response of the West and Ukraine's desperate resistance. The firm will for law enforcement shown by the U.S. toward dictators like Maduro has branded Putin as an 'international criminal' and instilled in him the fear that he could be removed at any time. In essence, the pressure to protect the values of the free world is precisely targeting the heart of the dictator.

There are also significant implications from a counter-China perspective. Even China, which promised ‘limitless cooperation’ with Russia, will have no choice but to consider distancing itself as it watches Putin's wavering status. The isolation of a dictatorial regime inevitably leads to misjudgment, and those misjudgments accelerate the collapse of the system. Putin’s method of distancing economic officials and relying solely on reports from security agencies will become a self-destructive move that paralyzes the national system.

In particular, the fact that the heads of intelligence authorities engaged in heated arguments and shifted responsibility in front of the president suggests that Putin’s control is cracking from within. Loyalty can be coerced through fear, but in a moment of crisis, that fear turns into a blade aimed at the leader. Putin assigning special security to his generals is proof that he fears the possibility of internal rebellion that much.

Historically, the end of a dictator always began within the walls they trusted the most. The true threat Putin faces is not Ukraine's drones, but the consequences of the lies and oppression he created. A leader who has disconnected himself from the world will eventually lose their sense of reality and rush toward the path of destruction.

Ultimately, Putin's 'bunker rule' is nothing more than the desperate struggle of a dictator facing his end. It is clear what the end will be for a leader who is alienated from information and has lost even human trust in the broad daylight of the 21st century. We have now reached a point where we must preemptively prepare for a post-Putin Russia and the resulting cataclysm in international politics.